If your fantasy team is lacking depth at the Center or PF position, or in categories such as rebounds, blocks or percentages, consider picking up one of the two centers that I’ve seen available in some leagues: Kurt Thomas (Sea- PF, C) or Sean Williams (NJ – PF, C).

Kurt Thomas is an experienced player that will get you a lot of boards, a pretty good number of blocks, a good FG% and a decent A/TO ratio
Thomas is currently in the starting lineup for the SuperSonics and is coming off a pretty good month of December. He’s definitely a guy you should consider picking up if you’re in need of rebounds as he’s averaged around 11 of those in his last eight games. His blocks per game have steadily increased as of late and he’s even picked up a few more steals, too. Kurt has had on-and-off problems with his hamstring and ankle this year, but if he can stay healthy, he is a good backup center/power forward option. Thomas ranked 61st last month in the Yahoo Fantasy game.

Sean Williams is a 21-year old rookie with a wealth of potential that will get you a lot of blocks, a pretty good number of points and boards and above-average percentages
Williams is a tough young player that can just about do it all. At 6-10, 235, Sean is one of the lesser-known talents of the 2007 Draft class. Currently in the starting lineup for the Nets, he has shown incredible athleticism and the ability to overcome minor injuries. Between Thomas and Williams, Thomas has definitely been performing better recently, but Williams certainly has the edge in potential and intangibles. If Coach Frank can find even more minutes for him, I would expect Williams to improve on his already stellar first-half of the season. Williams ranked 78 last month in the Yahoo Fantasy Game.

If neither of these guys are available in your league, and you truly need help in middle, consider picking up either of these options (in order): Erick Dampier (if healthy), Jason Maxiell or Andray Blatche.

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To hoops,
Farid

Eight days into the new year and it is already becoming clear which players will shine above the rest in the year two thousand and eight. These are the top 5 players in 2008 so far–through January 8.

(5) Brad Miller
2008: 21.3 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 5.3 apg, 1 bpg and a 91.7% FT%
Team’s record: 2-2

Miller helped lead a depleted 13-20 Sac-town to a close home victory over the Orlando Magic (22-14) last night. Has performed at this high level without Artest, Martin or Bibby in the lineup. Expect his stats to remain inflated until Martin and Bibby return next week, at which point they should begin to steadily decline.

(4) Mo Williams
2008: 19.0 ppg, 6.0 apg, 3.3 spg, 51.9% FG%, 90.5% FT%
Team’s record: 3-1

On New Year’s eve, he missed a game against the Detroit Pistons because of tendinitis in his left Achilles’ tendon. Since then, he has dropped the ridiculous numbers you see above. Williams has been a versatile and consistent fantasy scorer all season long. Additionally, with Michael Redd out the past three games with a thigh bruise and his timetable for the return uncertain, Williams has been able to get more touches and be more involved in the offense.

(3) Dirk Nowitzki
2008: 27.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.7 bpg, 51.8% FG%, 95% FT%
Team’s record: 3-0

Only shot 36% from the field in the three games leading up to 2008, but many have noted that he seems to have found his groove. The 7-footer may be expected to log more minutes in the absence of Erick Dampier. His first real test in a while will come against Rasheed Wallace and the Detroit Pistons tonight on ESPN.

(2) Allen Iverson
2008: 33.0 ppg, 4.5 apg, 52.4% FG%, 87.2% FT%, 47.6% 3PT%, 3.6 A/T ratio
Team’s record: 3-1

If there were any doubts after he left Philadelphia as to whether he would be able lead a Denver Nugget team laden with existing fantasy super-stars (Camby and ‘Melo), he has certainly quieted them. Fantasy-wise, at #8 overall on the season, he is far superior to his counterpart Carmelo Anthony (#44 overall), and has finally edged in front of his multi-dimensional teammate Marcus Camby (#9 overall). A.I. is as explosive as he has ever been in the lane, has been absolutely on-fire from downtown, and refuses to let the struggles of an 82 game season wear on him. He’s only getting better.

(1) Lebron James
2008: 30.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 6.8 apg, 2.3 spg, 48.3% FG%
Team’s record: 4-0

“The Chosen One” has been on a magnificent run as of late. From being heckled by Chris Bosh’s girlfriend and cousin and dropping 24 in one quarter to receiving #2 Facial Dunk of the Year honors, King James has been spectacular this season. Having fallen behind to #12 in the season rankings, Lebron is off to a tremendous start in 2008. He has single handily–as always–brought the Cavs back over .500 and looks to be becoming the clutch shooter they’ve always needed him to be. He’s one of the only players in fantasy basketball that can get you production in nearly every category on any given night. With 7 of the Cav’s next 10 games being on the road, Lebron will need to be as dangerous as ever. We predict he will be.

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To hoops,
Farid

Andrew Bynum is going to be something special.

Only 20 years old, the 7-foot center is already making big noise for the Los Angeles Lakers. I think it’s clear to anyone that watches him that he is the future of the NBA. From dunking on Shaq at age 17, to cursing at his teammate in the preseason, Bynum has shown us unparalleled aggressiveness and indescribable athleticism. Mark my word, Andrew Bynum will be an all-star for years to come.

With that, here is The Trading Block’s first video post of the new year. The rundown:

1. Bynum’s recent fantasy development–from undrafted to top-40 player
2. The Trading Block’s predictions for Bynum the rest of the year
3. What might impact these predictions
4. What a fantasy manager can do with this information

Highlights of this post: Martell Webster goes for 24 points in one quarter. Brandon Roy only plays nine minutes after injuring his tailbone. Blazers beat Utah again. Here we go.

(1) Martell Webster = “baby Kobe” ?!?
Martell Webster–a player that I acquired as a free agent in one of my leagues at the end of ’07 (pats self on back)–torched the Utah Jazz on Saturday night for 24 points in the third quarter alone in route to a career-high 26 point evening. This prompted LaMarcus Aldridge to say this about Webster:

“We were calling him Baby Kobe because he couldn’t miss.”

During his near record-setting third quarter (one shy of Terry Porter’s team record 25 points in a quarter), Webster hit ten straight shots (including three 3 pointers). With Roy out, the Blazers began calling plays for Webster. When Webster wouldn’t miss, Portland continued giving him the ball, further increasing his confidence. Jarret Jack was surprised that the Jazz continued to leave Webster so open, saying: “That surprised me. I’ve never seen anything like that in my life… they kept leaving him open, I couldn’t understand it.”

What does this mean for Webster’s fantasy status? Well I think he’s a definite pick up at this point if he’s still a free agent in your league. If Roy isn’t 100% in the short run, a confident Webster will probably benefit with more minutes and more set plays. As of right now Webster’s averaging 11 points, 4 boards and a couple assists a game and I look for this to improve.

(2) Roy out after nine minutes
Brandon Roy left Saturday night’s game against Utah after only 9 minutes with a sore tailbone (also known as the coccyx).

Roy did stay on the bench to witness Webster’s performance, however, saying afterwards that he might have been Webster’s “biggest fan in the gym.”

(3) Portland will not lose
Could this year be Basketball’s equivalent of the MLB’s ’98 Season when everybody and their mom had something to say about the McGwire/Sosa home-run chase? When Football’s done and over, it sure looks as if the NBA will have a lot going for them. As of right now:

1. The Blazers are on an incredible streak and if they keep playing Utah every week (they’ve played Utah now 4 times since December 11), it looks like they might never lose again
   
2. The Pistons and Celtics have brought back not only one of the best rivalries in the league, but an actual Eastern Conference threat to dethrone San Antonio
3. Kobe is actually happy he wasn’t traded now that Bynum is playing amazingly
   
4. Isiah Thomas’ poor performance is getting college students arrested

But seriously, the Blazers are showing great team chemistry and resiliency. First Oden went down at the beginning of the season and they still found ways to win. Now today, Roy can’t play past the first quarter, and they still pull off the victory–in decisive form! This team should be very good when Oden returns.

Full disclosure
These days my alliances are a little foggy. I used to be a huge Rockets fan because of The Dream, but because I’m from Southern California and only see them on TV, I’m starting to become an LA Lakers fan.

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To hoops,
Farid

Two young players are scheduled to return to their teams sometime this month after early-season injuries.

The good thing about each of these players is that their team’s have vastly underperformed this season, so they will most likely be quickly reintegrated back into the fold.

(1) Nenad Krstic (NJ)
Injury: Left knee rehab
Out Since: Nov 21, 2007
06-07: 16 points, 7 boards, 2 assists, 1 block, 53% FG%
When to expect him back: mid-to-late January

This 24 year-old, 7 footer is a really talented offensive player. He told the NY Post on December 31st that he “feel(s) really good” and hasn’t seen any swelling in his knee. Although his timetable for return is still up in the air–the team is extra cautious since he has already hurt himself by trying to come back from the same injury too fast before–he’s been doing a lot of conditioning, including full-court drills and “basketball” stuff. Definitely an all-star caliber player when he’s at his best, Krstic’s large reach could really help the Nets’ weak interior.

Nenad should be a great NBA player for a long time if he can sufficiently recover from this injury. The Serbian has good range, good instincts around the rim and has improved in points, boards, assists, blocks, FG% and minutes in each of his first 3 years in the league. Look for him to give the Nets a much needed boost in the second-half of the season.

---

(2) Randy Foye (Minn)
Injury: Stress Fracture in left kneecap
Out Since: Oct 31, 2007 (all season)
06-07: 10 points, 3 assists, 3 boards, about 1 steal and 1 three, 85% FT% in only 23 minutes
When to expect him back: mid January or sooner

Foye became the go-to guy for the Wolves late last season and hasn’t played a lick all season because of a stress fracture. The St. Paul Pioneer Press reports the point guard is going to have his injured left knee re-examined on January 7th. During his last examination the doctor’s pushed his timetable for return back a bit, but Wolves Head Coach Randy Wittman says this time he should be “cleared to go (because) he has no pain or anything.”

I’m particularly optimistic about Foye because the Wolves are lacking depth at the point guard position. In his rookie campaign last year, Foye was very effective in limited action, so if he’s anywhere near full recovery from his injury, expect him to get a lot of minutes and a pretty good statline for a depleted Minnesota team.

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To hoops,
Farid

It has finally arrived, the final of five articles that discusses what any fantasy basketball manager should do before picking up a free agent!

Here are the previous 4 tips: one | two | three | four

(5) Avoid picking up a player that is strong in categories you absolutely cannot win (a tip for H2H leagues)

In a standard Yahoo Fantasy Basketball H2H league, there are 9 categories: FG%, FT%, 3PTM, Points, Assists, Rebounds, Steals, Blocks and Turnovers. There are also 20+ weeks of play if the league starts with the beginning of the NBA. What this means is that there are plenty of opportunities to accumulate “wins” throughout the season. In other words, a manager need not be concerned with winning every category each week to do well. In fact, the most efficient managers will only be concerned with improving categories that they have a chance in (and might actually win on a week-to-week basis) and forget about those in which they are obviously weak. This is something I would recommend every H2H manager do.

Let me illustrate the dilemma with an example:
(1) If a team finishes 6-3 every week for 20 weeks…
it will achieve a final record of 120-60.
(2) If a team finishes 10 weeks 8-1 and 10 weeks 3-6…
it will achieve a final record of 110-70.

What I’m trying to get at is this–if you can consistently win SIX categories across an entire H2H season, this is better than being able to dominate half of your opponents (most likely the weaker teams in your league), but be too-thinly spread out against 9 categories and lose to the other half (most likely the stronger managed teams in your league).

Therefore, when picking up a free agent, a manager should always be cognizant of his or her strengthens and improve on those, rather than fruitlessly attempt to improve in categories he or she will rarely win.

For example, if I am great in Points, Rebounds and Blocks; average in FG%, FT% and Steals; and poor in 3PTM, Assists and Turnovers, I would only want to add players that could improve my standing in those categories (P, Rb, Bl, FG, FT, Stl) and avoid adding players that would help me in 3s, Assists, and TO’s. Why?

1. Ensures a team will be particularly strong and difficult to beat in certain categories
   See example above, if your team is unstoppable each week in 5-6 categories, you’re probably better off than a more well-rounded team that is spread too thin against tougher opponents.
2. Lowers the amount of information a manager has to process before adding a player
   When a manager concedes a couple of categories each week in favor of dominating across many others, he reduces the amount of research and/or homework he needs to do before picking up a player. This almost certainly will improve a manger’s decision-making ability as he or she will only have to process so much information about a player before making a decision. For example: how does this addition affect these 6 categories? vs. how does this addition affect all 9 categories?
3. A strong game by a player on your team will always have an impact on the head-to-head matchup that week
   Don’t you hate it when its Saturday night and your team is down by 25 steals–and will obviously lose the Steals category–and a player on your team goes for 7 steals in a game? Sure the 7 steals represents an amazing performance, but does it actually affect the results at the end of the week? Not at all. By focusing only on players that will improve your performance in categories that you at least have a chance at winning, a manager ensures that he is not under-utilizing his roster space. Each roster position is valuable and part of the difficultly of being a manager is knowing who to place where and who to pick up as a free agent.

In conclusion, I just want to reiterate that strong fantasy managers are smart enough to realize that they will not win each head-to-head matchup 9-0. Instead, they look for competitive advantages across six-or-so categories and concede losses in others. This way they can focus on specific categories, become expert’s in those categories and win those categories. In my mind, this is the soundest H2H strategy around.

I hope you enjoyed the How to Pickup a Free Agent series. Let me know what you liked/disliked in the comments below!

To hoops,
Farid

This is the fourth installment of How to Pickup a Free Agent, which discusses what any competitive fantasy basketball manager should do before picking up a free agent.

Here are the previous three:
(1) Look at a free agent’s overall & season ranking
(2) Determine if the free agent is trending up or down
(3) Pick up free agent’s that will add value to your team

(4) Figure out why the player is a free agent

There are 156 unavailable, signed players in my H2H league (12 teams * 13 players/team). In contrast, there are over 350 available free agents (15 pages of 25 players each).

For the most part, a free agent is available because a league has determined that the player’s future predicted output (“fantasy statistics”) is not greater than the future predicted output of existing signed players. In this sense Fantasy Basketball “markets” are efficient. If a free agent’s future predicted fantasy stats are greater than that of an existing signed player, an add/drop transaction takes place.

Therefore, there is probably a good, if not decent, reason why a player is currently a free agent in your league. Let’s discuss some of the possible reasons (many of which are obvious).

Reasons why a player might be a free agent

1. A player does not accumulate enough fantasy statistics
2. A player is injured and his short-run, medium-run, or long-run fantasy scoring potential has been hindered
3. A player’s future potential is severely affected by loss of minutes (return of a starter), a trade (moved to a new system), team problems (doesn’t get along with other players), league problems (suspension), or even personal/legal problems
4. A player’s overachievements in certain categories are outweighed by glaring weaknesses
5. A player is perceived to be on a down turn (see tip 2/5)

Now that we have an understanding as to why a player is typically a free agent, I have some tips for manager’s that seek to improve their eye-of-skepticism when looking at potential pickups.

How to evaluate a free agent

1. Read all of the available news surrounding a player
   This involves at minimum reading the little post-it note that Yahoo places next to players. This will provide you with a cursory look at a player’s recent performance, injury updates and sometimes gives you recommendations as well.
   But, for more competitive managers, I recommend reading blogs, sports news sites and browsing fantasy basketball forums to gain a better idea of what might be going on with a particular player. An extremely valuable tip I once received was to consult team-specific sites, blogs, etc. for information on players, as these sites tend to cover individual players on the team better than generalist sites.
   Becoming an “expert” on a player doesn’t take more than 5 minutes and it alerts you to the valuable information on the player’s injury status, his recent minutes, his off-the-court problems, etc.
2. Look at the free agent’s performance in his (i) last game, (ii) last week and (iii) last month
   See a downward trend? This should warn a manager to do additional research to determine if the player falls into one of the categories listed above. For example, a player may have lost his starting position when his teammate returned from injury.
3. Determine the free agent’s weakness(es)
   Nearly every player would be a worthwhile acquisition if you could take only that player’s positive characteristics and leave his weaknesses behind. In general, big-men (F’s, PF’s and C’s) tend to have high FG%’s, Rebounds and Blocks, with low Three’s, FT%’s and Assists. On the other hand, guards (SF, SG, G, PGs) typically outperform in Three’s, FT%’s and Steals and are weak in Rebounding, Blocks and FG%. Although the acquisition of a certain free agent may be helpful in some categories, a manager should always make sure the player does not bring extreme weaknesses in other areas. What use is a player who was brought on to bring in Threes if he is a severely poor shooter (FG%, FT%) and turns the ball over excessively?

In conclusion, I can’t emphasize enough the amount of homework a competitive manager needs to do before he or she should make an acquisition. Whether it be scouting the player on Yahoo, a fantasy blog, etc., a manager should always be aware of the recent developments of a player he or she is thinking about picking up.

To hoops,
Farid

I recently found two free Yahoo Fantasy Basketball Stat Trackers.

StatTracker is great because it allows you to receive real-time, up-to-the-minute updates on statistics and scores for your players, as well as compare this progress to that of other teams so you always know where you stand.

(1) Freebie Stats
Huge props to David Lee for creating a free and fully-functional StatTracker for Yahoo Fantasy Basketball! As someone who has been looking for such a free feature, I was pleasantly surprised to have stumbled upon it. The script works through Firefox’s greasemonkey extension and can be utilized THROUGH the yahoo fantasy sports page.

David’s blog entry releasing the script

The actual script: Freebie Stats

(2) Fantasy Sports Live! (FSLive)
FSLive is a great free yahoo stat tracker. As opposed to the above script that allows you to view your stats within your league’s site, this stattracker is run through the FSLive website. The very nice thing about the FSLive client is that it allows you to view all your leagues (you are asked to give them your login information) and all your opponents within those leagues. You can find it here.

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To hoops,
Farid

I don’t want to take anything away from the Portland Trailblazers, who are currently on a 13 game winning streak and have definitely been playing exceptionally, but the hater inside of me couldn’t resist writing this article. What I’ve concluded from my very basic research of the Blazers’ schedule the last 13 games and the standings of their opponents during that stretch is that Portland has not been playing difficult opponents.

The Figures

1. The aggregate win-loss record of their opponents during the streak is 174-216, for a sub-par winning percentage of 44.6%.
2. There are 30 teams in the National Basketball Association. If you rank them 1-30, with 30 being the worst, the average rank of team’s the Blazers have played the last 13 games is 18.2.
3. This includes games against 4 out of the worst 5 teams in the league: Seattle (26), Memphis (28), Miami (29) and Minnesota (30). These teams have a combined win-loss record 29-90.
4. During this stretch, they’ve only played 1 out of the top 8 teams in the entire league (New Orleans). This means they haven’t played Boston, Detroit, San Antonio, Phoenix, Orlando, the Los Angeles Lakers or Dallas during the winning streak.
5. Out of the 13 games, only 3 of them were on the road. Their last 6 games have all been at home.

I’ll leave interpretation up to the rest of you, but the numbers speak for themselves.

Edit Dec 31, 2007
On New Years Eve, the Utah Jazz finally defeated the Portland Trail Blazers, ending their 13 game winning streak. This was due in large part to the 19 points and 9 boards from Carlos Boozer & the 18 points and 8 assists from Deron Williams. The Jazz certainly came ready play, hoping to avoid a third consecutive loss to the Blazers (during the Blazers’ streak, they had defeated the Jazz twice).

To hoops,
Farid

There are certain things any fantasy basketball manager should do before picking up a free agent. This is the third of five installments. Here are the other two: one | two.

(3) Pick up free agent’s that will add value to your team
This is an important point that is often overlooked in the face of player rankings and the such. The job of a fantasy manager is similar to the job of a general manager in the sense that a fantasy manager should only add a player that will make his team better. This means that a fantasy owner should analyze his current team (read: look at the standings) and figure out what his team is weak in and what he needs to improve in. A skilled fantasy manager will not only win
a league, but score consistently across all categories.

You should pick up a free agent if he is:

1. A free agent strong in categories that your team is weak in.
2. A free agent strong in categories that an injured player on your team was strong in.
3. A free agent exceptionally strong across many categories (not necessarily one’s you need).
4. A free agent strong in categories that your opponent is strong in (only applicable to H2H leagues).

A free agent strong in categories that your team is weak in.
This should be an owner’s rationale for about 75% of his moves in a Rotisserie-scored league. Over time, a manager will notice weaknesses in his teams and it is his or her job to correct them. Here’s a simple example. About a month ago, I noticed in one of my Rotisserie-scored league’s that I was heavily trailing in rebounds and blocks. I also noticed I had a plethora of 3PTM and steals. Therefore, I made two strategic acquisitions–picking up free agent big men that were strong in rebounding and blocks–and two strategic drops–letting go two of my lesser-known reserves that had been supplementing my 3PTM and steals stats all year long. Simple pick-ups like this will vastly improve your team of the long run if you make it your goal as a manger to constantly be evaluating your team and its performance in all categories.

A free agent strong in categories that an injured player on your team was strong in.
Inevitably, throughout the course of a season, a player on your team will become injured. If your fortunate, this will only be for a short duration. If you are less fortunate, a player of yours might be out for a long stretch of time. As a fantasy manager, you don’t have time to sit around and mourn the loss of a fantasy player–especially a star fantasy player. In fact, you must act quickly to offset the loss felt by the injury by making a strategic free agent pickup. Ideally, a manager should attempt to replicate the player who was injured as best as possible so as to continue the stream of stats flowing into certain categories. For example, if Kevin Durant ends up being out for a while with his sprained left index finger, I will certainly need to compensate for his loss by picking up a player that is strong in points, blocks, steals and three-pointers. Obviously, this will be very hard to replicate completely, but by picking up a similar player, I at least ensure that my team–currently 2nd–will not fall drastically behind in any of the categories that Durant was single-handily carrying me in.

A free agent exceptionally strong across many categories (not necessarily one’s you need).
This is a no-brainer. If a good player happens to be on waivers or just collecting dust as a free agent, by all means, pick him up. The only reason I can imagine an exceptionally strong player being a free agent in the first place is if he is (i) coming off an injury or (ii) was dropped by an unexperienced fantasy manager. If this so happens, a fantasy manager should jump at the opportunity to pick him up. I like to make sure I am close to the top of the waiver list so that if a player like this does fall onto waivers, I have a better shot at picking him up.

A free agent strong in categories that your opponent is strong in (only applicable to H2H leagues).
In head to head Yahoo Fantasy Basketball leagues you have to pay closer attention to your roster, your performances and your future opponents on a week-to-week basis. Each week, on Sunday night, I like to evaluate my opponent for the next week by checking out that opponent’s stats, what that opponent is strong in, and how that opponent has been fairing as of recently. I typically do this by accessing the “head-to-head stats” tab on my league’s main page and then look at my opponents “win-loss” standings across each category, and sometimes even his totals. If you’re looking for a way to convert H2H league totals into Rotisserie-style standings: check out this tool here. After doing some research into my opponent, I then like to see where I may be at a disadvantage. If I see my opponent is strong in 3s and I’m average in 3s, and I believe that the addition of 1 free agent specializing in 3s would put me over the top, I typically make a move. At the same time, I must warn manager’s out there not to be greedy. If you are playing an opponent that you should beat 7-2 naturally, don’t compromise that very strong standing by making a move that will bring you down in crucial categories. Thus, the rule for H2H week-to-week pickups might be summarized as follows: make strategic acquisitions when you’ve done your research and you are positive the acquisition will help you win a category that week, but do not make superfluous changes that will only compromise your position in crucial categories.

If a fantasy manager cannot place his or her potential free agent into one of the four player categories listed above, the manager should really reconsider his or her rationale and whether the player being added is actually offering value to the team.

Share your thoughts with me below in the comments!

To hoops,
Farid